2019 China's smart door control industry trend forecast

(1) Forecast of overall market size

　　 China's smart door lock market doubled in size in 2018 compared to 2017, and this development momentum will continue or even be better in 2019. Based on this estimate, the sales volume of smart door locks in China will reach 30 million sets in 2019, and the market size is about 60 billion yuan based on a unit price of 2,000 yuan.

　　 Among them, apartment smart door locks will further decline in the overall proportion, and home smart door locks will become the absolute main force in the market.

　　 In terms of penetration rate, due to the entry of Internet companies, the concept of smart door locks will become more popular in public opinion and publicity. More ordinary consumers will have access to smart door locks and be able to bear this part of the cost.

In 2019, the penetration rate of home smart door locks in my country is expected to rise to around 10%. The current popularization of Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Beijing may reach 15%, Zhejiang, Shandong, and Shanghai may reach 10%. Others have not yet The infiltrated areas are also expected to sprout.

　　 (2) Smart door locks participate in changes in the corporate landscape

　　 The current domestic smart door lock participating companies are mainly divided into five categories, but this pattern will change in 2019 and 2020.

　　Analysis believes that Internet companies will become the main body of the smart lock consumer market, and traditional lock companies will become partners and foundries of Internet companies, and the two will survive together.

　　 Smart door lock startups may be acquired or strategically invested by Internet giants and become an independent force.

　　Traditional security companies may abandon the 2C market to specialize in the 2B field.

　　Traditional home appliance companies are in an awkward situation and may withdraw from the mainstream market.

　　 (3) Product and technology upgrade trend

　　 In 2019, domestic smart door locks will have some upgrades and changes in products and technologies, and the overall standard will be improved, and some high-end functions will become industry standard.

　　Capacitive fingerprint recognition will become the basic configuration, especially the capacitive fingerprint recognition technology that supports live verification, which will become an important reference standard for users to purchase smart door locks, forcing manufacturers to popularize it as a key feature of their products.

　　 There will be an overall follow-up in the industry in terms of anti-cat eye lock picking, anti-tracking and other detailed functions. The current situation is that for the diversity of their products, manufacturers have dispersed these functions into different models, and no model has these functions at the same time.

　　 The “opportunity” behavior is expected to end in 2019. The smart door lock launched by Xiaomi at the end of the year has theoretically achieved a comprehensive and low price. If other manufacturers continue to engage in permutation and combination, they may lose their market advantage.

　　 The concept of "true ferrule" may not be widely adopted in the end because of its design logic contradicts the current ferrule method and mutual advantages and disadvantages.

　　 The increase of smart door locks entering the market has increased the demand for product industry norms and standards, and the barbaric growth will be terminated. In 2019, it is expected to introduce the first industry standard in the field of smart door locks, which requires the promotion of the entire industry and the media.

　　 (4) Analysis of the buyer's market for smart door locks

　　The buyer's market of smart door locks is mainly divided into two parts: household consumers and apartment leasing companies. As for household consumers, as the number of news channels about smart door locks increases, and the promotion of store advertisements and displays, more consumers will be exposed to such products, and the market will continue to expand.

The main sales targets of home smart door locks are young people who have houses. The increase in online advertising will cover more of this group of people. Their ability to accept new things is stronger, their consumption power is also strong, and they have a desire to express. Will also be affected by this and will spread quickly.

　　 With the maturity of technology and the intensified competitive pressure, the price of smart door locks will enter less than 1,000 yuan in 2019, and the cost of purchasing smart door locks will be greatly reduced.

　　It is expected that the sales of smart home door locks in first-tier cities will increase significantly in 2019, and there will be new breakthroughs in second-tier cities.

　　As for smart door locks for apartments, the market is relatively stable because the buyer is an apartment leasing company. The main source of growth in apartment smart door locks in 2019 will be the penetration of demand for smart door locks from small and medium-sized apartment rental companies in addition to large companies.

　　 However, the growth rate is not expected to be very large. The last outbreak period of the growth of apartment smart door locks has passed, and there is still some time before the next outbreak period. ZDC predicts that after the popularity of home smart door locks increases, apartment smart door locks can usher in the next follow-up demand outbreak.

　　 (5) Summary

　　 In 2019, the smart door lock industry will continue to develop, the market scale will continue to expand, and the market structure of participating companies will change. The industry urgently needs unified specifications and standards, and the user market will break through young people.

　　 Grasping these keywords will be able to gain an advantage in the market competition in 2019, and mastering the qualifications of the specified standards will be able to win the greatest chance of winning in the major adjustment of the structure.

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